The debate about a possible housing bubble is revived

Not far the crisis that developed after a housing bubble in the United States and that seriously affected its economy since 2009.

And countries like Peru, where the growth of the economy is based largely on between her construction and housing construction, the possibility of a housing bubble continues to be a topic that many lose sleep.

Consider the situation in the country. In the last five years the increase in housing prices hovered around 20%. But this strong rise in home values ​​is it due to the effects of the high demand of the real estate boom or bong is the advent of a bubble?

For the economist Paul Lira, academic director of the UPC, “the housing bubble is just around the corner,” because, although the pace slowed sales, prices continue to rise.

“A bubble is defined as the increase in the price of a good that goes beyond the fundamentals. Yet as the same Central Reserve Bank notes, between the last quarter of 2014 and 2013 prices have increased by 16 % in constant soles while the sale of real estate units rose only 2%, “he said.

Also in the period November 2013 – November 2012, the 23% housing credits, of which 40% were in dollars rose. “This adds an extra dimension to the real problem, as many borrowers in that currency perceive their income on soles, which exposes them to currency risk,” he declared.

However, for the economist Armando Mendoza, the increase in housing prices is due in part to the speculative boom.

“The bubble is generated by the oversubscription to the loans and many speculative buying, but we are far from that. The real estate sector is quite heterogeneous, but some sectors such as A or B are already reaching its limits, ie, their increases will be more reasonable, “he said.

He added that in the case of the United States or Europe, the crisis of the housing bubble was accompanied by a financial and economic crisis scenarios that do not occur in our country.

In the same vein, economist César Peñaranda said that the analyzes show that there is a risk in the short term. “If the price of the houses I observed and compared with the average prices in the region, these are low,” he said.

“STILL ON LAND”

Fernando Castañeda Melgar, partner Aramburú Boero Camino Attorneys, argues that a housing bubble is an unrealistic price rise collapse of the property at any given time, causing his dramatic fall as a result of reduced demand and market failure to absorb the existing real estate.

“This drastic correction to financial institutions is affected, as we have seen in the United States and Spain, may get to break the impossibility of recovering their loans, and investors who have no way to pay for credits to which agreed to acquire property in order to resell them at a higher price or lease positively and generate negative perceptions about the economy, as you know the experts in this matter, can cause more damage than the bubble itself. ”

The expert noted that there ratios as Price to Earnings, which represents the number of years it would have to rent a property to recover their purchase price.

Castañeda cites the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru, pointing to the end of 2010, an average of 13 years to recoup the price of housing, with a return of 7.4% for investment by way of rent.

Today, that would mean the range of 17 years and 6% yield. “The bubble ratios are of the order of 25 or more years to recover the price, so we are still on land,” says Fernando Castañeda.

KEY

Ricardo Arbulú, president of the General Building Committee of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), says that the rise in the price of housing is due to the lack of supply in the market.

“In 2013 the increase was 10%, lower than the figure recorded in years past, and this 2014 up 8% for social housing projects are expected,” he explained. Estimated that more districts would encarecerían prices El Agustino, Ate, Carabayllo, Barranco and San Miguel.

It called for reducing the time and paperwork to run housing projects.

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